Lets get one thing out of the way; both Greg Oden and Kevin Durant are going to be franchise players in the NBA for the next decade. Much is being made of their pre-draft workout woes. Doubters are pointing to Oden's recent workout for the Portland Trailblazers in which he failed to impress, raising questions about exactly how NBA-ready he is. Kevin Durant has also raised concerns at the Orlando pre-draft camp, where he failed to bench press 185 pounds even once, leading some to wonder how his lack of athleticism will translate to the fast, powerful NBA of today.
All this doubting is ridiculous. The NBA has not seen a 7-foot center with the athletic ability of Greg Oden ever since David Robinson was in his heyday, and Hakeem Olajuwon before that. As for Kevin Durant, the league has never seen anything like him. His length and skinny frame reminds some of a young Kevin Garnett, but KG's skill-set coming straight out of high school was nowhere near what Durant possesses. Durant showed that he has several go-to moves that will be very effective in the pros, and he is only going to get better once he bulks up.
So now that we agree that both Oden and Durant are going to be franchise players, who do the Blazers take with the #1 pick? The decision isn't as obvious as we may have thought prior to the 2007 NCAA season. How close is this race for #1? Back in 2003, the Cleveland Cavaliers had decided they would take LeBron James over Syracuse freshman phenom Carmelo Anthony long before the NBA draft. Blazers general manager Kevin Pritchard still hasn't made up his mind, with less than one week to go until the NBA draft.
In which direction should the Blazers go? To decide, we first have to look at the pieces the Blazers already have in place. In 2006, the Blazers picked LaMarcus Aldridge with the #2 pick and Randy Foye with the #6, who they traded to the Timberwolves for Brandon Roy, the #7 pick.
Brandon Roy had a remarkable rookie year, running away with the rookie of the year award with averages of 17 points per game, 4 rebounds per game, and 4 assists per game. His game is no secret, and he could become a smaller version of Scottie Pippen later in his career. Portland's 2-guard position is set for a long time to come.
Despite being the #2 pick, LaMarcus Aldridge is much less known, starting in only 22 games last year. The 6'11 center averaged a meager 9 points per game and 5 rebounds per game, playing in only 22 minutes per game. But in order to truly appreciate his talents, you have to look deeper into the box score. Aldridge didn't really get going until the month of March. During the month of March, LaMarcus averaged 16 points per game, 8 rebounds per game, and 2 blocks per game, playing in 32 minutes per game*. Lets compare these numbers to the other top centers in the NBA. All-NBA First Teamer Amare Stoudemire averaged 14 points per game and 8 rebounds per game in his rookie year. Dwight Howard averaged 12 points per game and 10 rebounds per game, and Yao Ming averaged 15 points per game and 7 rebounds per game. If Aldridge continues his progression, he will be in the upper echelon of centers in no time.
Now, what Blazers' management has to figure out is what they want their team identity to be. If they take Oden, they will have the best front line in the entire NBA. They will be a force on the defensive side of the ball, as either Oden or Aldridge will be around to contest any shots in the paint. They would be the new "twin towers" of the NBA, ala the Tim Duncan and David Robinson era in San Antonio.
Or do the Blazers go in the other direction, pick Durant, and become a perimeter-oriented team? The big plus with Durant is that he has an inside AND outside game. He can post up and beat you with a turnaround just as well as he can come off a screen, catch the ball and drain a trey. And although he is a great rebounder (4th best in the nation as a freshman), he won't be anywhere near the defensive presence Greg Oden will be when they hit their respective primes.
The NBA is evolving. The "Phoenix Suns Phenomenon" has spread throughout the league, making the small lineup and up-tempo style of play "trendy". The Golden State Warriors are the latest example of a team that can have success despite starting a small lineup consisting of just guards and forwards. They proved that you can beat the best with the right combination of athleticism and shooting prowess. The Denver Nuggets and Toronto Raptors are other examples of solid teams employing the fast-paced style of basketball.
But it was proven this year that the defense-first, half-court style of basketball wins when it comes to the playoffs. The two teams who made it to the Finals, the Spurs and Cavs, are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA. The NBA Champion Spurs built a team around franchise forward/center Tim Duncan and sorrounded him with great complimentary players. Despite the NBA's shift to small-ball, Tim Duncan has thrived lately and is better than he has ever been!
The Blazers could follow in the footsteps of the Spurs and pick a franchise big-man in Greg Oden, sorrounding him with great complimentary players in Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, and whatever they can get for Zach Randolph. Or, they could go where no team has gone before and select a player who is unlike anything we have ever seen.
In my opinion, Kevin Durant is the better fit for Portland, and Oden the better fit for Seattle. Oden is basically LaMarcus Aldridge with a higher ceiling, and taking Oden would still leave Portland without a go-to guy in the clutch. Picking Durant would give the Blazers a go-to player who can score from anywhere, both inside and outside, along with a great perimeter player in Brandon Roy and a solid inside presence in Aldridge.
Meanwhile, Durant is a bad fit in Seattle because the Sonics already two fantastic perimeter players in Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis. Durant is to Lewis as Oden is to Aldridge. Taking Oden would finally give the Sonics the inside presence they have been missing alonside Chris Wilcox (they've tried Saer Sene and Johan Petro, both of whom have slim chances of panning out), and it would allow them to re-sign Rashard Lewis. They would be left with a solid core of Luke Ridnour, Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, Chris Wilcox, and Greg Oden.
Whomever the Blazers decide to pick will propel them into the playoff picture. Seattle will undoubtedly be happy with whatever they end up with, but they won't have the success Portland will if Portland ends up with Oden.
One thing's certain...it sure is a good problem to have.
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